Tropical Storm Debby will continue to loiter off the South Carolina coast on Wednesday, moving a little faster than an average human walking while pummeling the region with rain. The storm will then accelerate north, shifting the flood risk to the Northeast later in the week.
Here’s how it is forecast to play out.
Wednesday: The Carolinas get more heavy rain.
Debby appeared to show some modest strengthening early Wednesday morning. But despite opportune conditions, the storm’s structure is likely too ragged at this point for more than mild intensification.
The storm’s center was sauntering northeast and should begin to move more to the north later Wednesday, reaching the coast of South Carolina and making landfall, again, near Bulls Bay just after midnight.
Rain will persist across portions of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina through the day and, in some places, increase in intensity in places that have already been battered with rain.
Significant rainfall of four to eight inches will add to the already staggering totals, increasing the risk of flooding. Places like Summerville, S.C., have already measured over 17 inches of rain.
The main place for concern, experts said Wednesday, is just inland of Wilmington, N.C. This area, they said, has the opportunity for a two-day rainfall total exceeding 15 inches, leading to the threat of a “prolonged life-threatening flash flood scenario.”
There is also at least some risk of flooding ahead of the main storm system in Delaware, Maryland and New Jersey. Similar to the downpour Tuesday in New York, tropical moisture spinning around Debby could enhance rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic as a weaker storm system moves through.
Thursday: Debby speeds up, and the rain shifts inland.
Debby will begin to pick up pace as it moves inland over the Carolinas. A more westerly forecast path will bring flooding rains farther inland than they have been seen so far.
Heavy precipitation is likely to make it into parts of southern and central Virginia, with heavy rains extending to near the southern Appalachians, forecasters said Wednesday.
There is a moderate to high risk of excessive rain that could lead to flash flooding across this region, with three to seven inches falling. It is not out of the realm of possibility that, in some locations, up to 10 inches of rain could fall.
Friday: The storm moves over the Northeast.
By midday on Friday, Debby should be somewhere over the Mid-Atlantic, and by this time, the storm will likely be absorbed by a typical weather pattern sweeping through the Northeast.
The deep layer of moisture from Debby, combined with this other storm system, will produce moderate to heavy rain from the Piedmont region of Maryland north into upstate New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.
Two to four inches of rain are expected in this region, with some areas reaching up to six inches. This is likely to produce considerable flash and urban flooding and river flooding.
Saturday: Things calm down.
Finally, on Saturday, the flooding worries from Debby may finally come to an end. But there is at least some chance of continued flood risk in New England before the storm system swiftly exits the region.
The post Debby’s Rains Will Move North This Week. Here’s Where. appeared first on New York Times.
