Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, and former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican, will square off for an open Senate seat in Michigan in what is likely to be one of the tightest and most closely watched Senate campaigns in the country.
As expected, Ms. Slotkin and Mr. Rogers easily prevailed in their Senate primaries on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, setting up a remarkably even contest for the fall.
Both held the same Central Michigan House district around Lansing and East Lansing. Both made their names in national security, Mr. Rogers as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Ms. Slotkin with her work for the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Department, State Department and White House National Security Council.
And in vying for the seat of Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Democratic stalwart who is retiring, both still need to work to broaden their appeal in a pivotal battleground where neither has held statewide office.
Forecasters such as the nonpartisan Cook Political Report initially favored Democrats to hold the seat, but President Biden’s struggles in Michigan — fueled in part by Israel’s war in Gaza — shifted the Senate contest to a pure tossup.
The most recent polling gives Ms. Slotkin a slight edge, consistent with other swing states where Democratic candidates have run ahead of their presidential nominee. But Michigan holds a specific challenge to Ms. Slotkin. She has made her name and reputation as a defense-minded Democrat both in the executive branch of government and in Congress. She is also Jewish and pro-Israel.
Mr. Biden’s staunch support for Israel created headwinds that may yet still affect Vice President Kamala Harris, whose rapid ascent to the top of the ticket was made official Monday night.
Significant numbers of Arab American and Muslim voters in and around Detroit registered their dismay with the Biden administration’s Middle East policies by voting for “uncommitted” delegates in the Michigan presidential primary in February.
More than 13 percent of Democratic primary voters chose “uncommitted” statewide, rather than voting for Mr. Biden. In Wayne County, where more than half of the state’s Arab population lives, 79 percent of the vote went to “uncommitted” in majority-Arab districts. Ms. Slotkin has shown bipartisan appeal in the last three House elections by winning her swing House district, but Democrats have traditionally won statewide in Michigan by running up the score in Greater Detroit.
Republicans will try to dent Ms. Slotkin’s image of moderation by tying her to Ms. Harris, whom they are portraying as “dangerously liberal.” Ms. Slotkin will attend Ms. Harris’s rally in Detroit on Wednesday night after avoiding Mr. Biden’s most recent appearance in the state.
Mr. Rogers will use former President Donald J. Trump’s calls for “America First” and an end to U.S. adventurism overseas to temper his own past support for a robust foreign policy, including in the Middle East, Republican strategists said.
But Mr. Rogers has his own problems. He has not held elective office since 2015, and since leaving Congress, he has loosened his connection to Michigan, moving to Florida and registering to vote in Coral Gables.
He moved back in 2023, but even before the primary on Tuesday, Democrats had begun tarring him as an out-of-touch lobbyist who cashed in on his ties to Capitol Hill for foreign governments, and then moved to Florida. His votes against abortion rights in the House will most likely be a mainstay of Democratic attacks.
Both Ms. Slotkin and Mr. Rogers faced opponents from the wings of their party in the primaries. Ms. Slotkin’s opponent, Hill Harper, was an actor on the television show “The Good Doctor” and ran as an outspoken progressive. The Republican primary started off as a seemingly competitive battle royale, but Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Rogers, then prominent contenders such as former Representative Peter Meijer dropped out. That left Mr. Rogers with just one significant challenger, former Representative Justin Amash, a libertarian-minded conservative who was chased from the Republican Party and then from Congress over his fierce criticism of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Amash’s Quixotic third-party run for president in 2020 went nowhere, as did his attempt to rejoin the Republican Party and vie for the Senate.
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