With Bangladesh’s security forces seemingly on a deadly collision course with angry protesters after a crackdown on Sunday, eyes were turning to the country’s powerful military establishment to see how it might respond.
Protesters are demanding that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina leave office, after 15 years of rule that have turned increasingly authoritarian. If the violence on the street leads to instability and chaos, the military — which has sought to distance itself from the violent police reaction through weeks of unrest — would certainly be a central player.
It has been before. Bangladesh’s army has a history of staging coups and counter coups. But over the past couple decades, the military has taken a less overt role in public affairs, choosing more often to exercise influence from behind the scenes.
Part of that shift as been attributed to Ms. Hasina. Her father, Bangladesh’s first leader, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, as well as much of her family, was killed in a deadly military coup in 1975. In her time in office, she has stacked its leadership ranks with loyalists, and allowed them access to lucrative government contracts and other businesses.
There are international incentives for the military, as well, which has been a major contributor to United Nations peacekeeping missions that have given it another important side business. Any involvement in a coup would subject the army to criticism — or ostracism — from the U.N., whose human rights chief responded to the recent killings by calling for restraint and accountability from those with “command responsibility.”
While the army was deployed on the streets during the crackdown to clear the protesters late last month, there have been reports of discomfort in the ranks over it. Dozens of former senior officers also issued a statement calling on the military not “to rescue those who have created this current situation” — a statement seen by some as referring to the police and paramilitaries, and possibly even to Sheikh Hasina herself.
On Sunday, the army’s chief, Gen. Waker-uz-Zaman, gathered senior officers for a meeting that was seen as an attempt to allay concerns. In a statement after the meeting, the army said its chief had reiterated that “the Bangladesh Army will always stand by the people in the interest of the public and in any need of the state.”
If Ms. Hasina’s power becomes untenable, analysts said the army would be unlikely to opt for a takeover. It might, though, try to aid some transition period from the sidelines with a caretaker government — something that happened in 2007.
“There are major international ramifications to a military coup. And more than leaders it is the younger officers who are hesitant to go ahead with anything of the sort,” M. N. Khan, a retired general of the Bangladeshi Army, said.
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