It’s been a tough few years for Hollywood. Once a sure money maker, COVID-19, strikes and the rise of AI have battered the industry in ways no one could have foreseen, so how will it look in 2034?
Entertainment stalwarts such as Disney, Paramount and Warner Brothers reported losses in 2023. Many blockbusters flopped, and movie theaters failed to regain their pre-pandemic profitability.
Studios are attempting to get back on track following a tumultuous year, but production activity is still down, while Wall Street’s faith in the industry remains shaken. It’s clear that Hollywood is undergoing a shift right now, but how will that affect it over the next ten years? Newsweek asked the experts.
Will AI Transform Hollywood?
Variety has dubbed it the “Hollywood AI Crisis,” with everyone from actors to writers, production teams, and maybe even directors at risk of being replaced by artificial intelligence.
In January, the Concept Art Assn. and the Animation Guild surveyed 300 entertainment industry leaders and discovered that three-fourths expected AI to abolish, reduce or merge positions at their companies. Researchers estimated that approximately 204,000 jobs will be negatively impacted by the shift before 2026—roughly 20 percent of industry roles.
However, Guy Fortt—Partner at Starfury Productions—believes it’s not all bad news for Hollywood creatives.
“The integration of AI and technology into film and TV production shows promise,” he told Newsweek. “It enhances creative possibilities, reduces costs, and creates more personalized and immersive content.”
Fortt isn’t the only one to see the creative and cost-cutting benefits of AI. Filmmaker Tyler Perry halted a planned $800 million expansion to his Atlanta studio in February after discovering software platform Sora. Created by Open AI, the video generator is capable of crafting lifelike scenes from text commands.
“All of that is currently and indefinitely on hold because of Sora and what I’m seeing,” Perry told The Hollywood Reporter. “I no longer would have to travel to locations. I don’t have to put a set on my lot. I can sit in an office and do this with a computer, which is shocking to me.”
Although the software has the potential to shake up the industry, it is also still in its early stages, and like many AI-generated creations, the footage has its flaws.
Examples of glitches include misplaced limbs and floating furniture, and Sora reportedly struggles to replicate complex body movements.
However, Fortt said that AI will continue to affect different aspects of the industry, such as content creation, distribution and audience interaction.
One area particularly vulnerable to AI is script writing. Fortt predicts technology such as chatbot ChatGPT being used to generate storylines or tailor scripts to better suit audiences’ tastes, using data garnered from AI that analyzes viewer preferences.
Production processes such as cinematography and lighting are also at risk, but whether the industry will replace these jobs with AI or integrate the technology is up for debate. Fortt suspects that animation and visual effect jobs “will be in high demand,” with workers able to “enhance visual storytelling without the extensive manual labor typically required.”
Unfortunately, the future looks less certain for actors, who Fortt said could be “easily automated.”
AI partly spurred the 2023 Writers Guild of America (WGA) and SAG-AFTRA (Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists) strikes, with actors and writers wanting guarantees that studios won’t replace them with the technology.
Even A-lister Keanu Reeves puts a clause in his contracts to prevent his image from being digitally replicated. However, deepfakes have yet to reach the level of an accomplished thespian.
“Acting talent will still be crucial for emotional and nuanced performances,” Fortt added. “While [AI] might reduce the number of certain traditional jobs, it also opens up opportunities for new roles.”
Will Hollywood Become More Diverse?
According to a survey conducted by streamer Tubi and The Harris Poll, three-quarters of Millennials (28 to 43-year-olds) and Generation Z (12 to 27-year-olds) wanted more diversity and representation in their content, while 71 percent would like to see more film and TV programs developed by independent and smaller creators.
“There is a growing shift among underrepresented content creators who are tired of waiting for the big studios and corporate giants to fund their projects,” Nubia Duvall Wilson, Partner at Starfury Productions, told Newsweek.
“The future will see more marginalized filmmakers—BIPOC, LGBTQ+, etc.—producing films and securing distribution on their own.”
Will Streaming Continue to Reign Supreme?
Fortt believes that streaming will continue to dominate due to a combination of variety and convenience. However, he has noticed a rising interest in traditional formats for nostalgia reasons, similar to the re-emergence of vinyl records in the music industry.
“This trend might lead to the increased popularity of physical media like DVDs and Blu-rays, or even novel viewing experiences that blend old and new technology,” he said.
“While these traditional or hybrid formats might not overtake streaming, they could gain a dedicated following among enthusiasts looking for a different or more tangible connection to their media.”
Streaming services were a driving force in the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, with platforms disrupting the traditional payment structure for actors and writers.
Deals were reached with both unions in September, but it appears that streamers have changed tack following the strikes.
With more money to lose, streamers are becoming more particular about the projects they choose. This means that fewer films and TV shows will get the green light and are more likely to be canceled if they don’t immediately rake in viewers.
Showrunners and filmmakers are also less likely to land multi-year deals, such as director David Fincher’s four-year deal with Netflix, while brands such as HBO and Disney have begun licencing their back catalog to other services for extra cash.
“With lower streaming audiences, something has to give,” filmmaker Neil Chase told Newsweek. “The future is less about big-budget tentpoles, remakes, reboots, and sequels, as it will be with smaller movies that focus on original content and are geared toward specific genre audiences.”
Chase believes Godzilla Minus One, which came out in November, is the “blueprint” for the next decade of film making. Produced for less than $12 million, the monster movie earned over $115 million at the global box office.
“It focused on a rock-solid script with relatable characters, strong dialogue and riveting action scenes through a unique take on the Godzilla mythos,” Chase explained.
“It delivered everything that its target audience was looking for, and maybe that’s the biggest takeaway for Hollywood. The next ten years may be a little leaner than many are used to, but the rise in storytelling quality will win back much of what’s been lost.”
Will Movie Theaters Survive?
In 2019, movie theaters raked in $11.4 billion across America. An easy win for cinema chains, when going to a theater was the only way to catch a new release.
However, COVID-19 changed all that. Forced to close due to lockdown restrictions, theaters grossed just $2.3 billion in 2020, while many films landed directly on streaming platforms instead.
Four years later, and it’s now common for films to jointly release on streaming services alongside theater runs. Cinema releases now get a shorter viewing window, before becoming available to rent or stream more quickly.
Although the rise of streaming and the pandemic hit movie theaters hard, Fortt is optimistic they can reach their former glory.
“Many people still enjoy the unique experience of watching a movie on the big screen, which theaters exclusively offer,” he said.
To regain their audience, Fortt suggests that theaters enhance the experience with improved amenities, exclusive content and technology that the average film viewer can’t get at home.
“While they may face challenges in reaching pre-pandemic profitability, a solid audience base still values the theater experience,” he added.
He might be right. The domestic box office exceeded $9 billion in 2023, its highest earnings since the pandemic began.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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