A concerted new Russian offensive is “less likely” in the coming weeks, the UK Ministry of Defense said in its latest intelligence update.
“Since the middle of September, Russia has highly likely committed elements of its new 25th Combined Arms Army (25 CAA) to action for the first time,” the ministry said.
“Units from two of 25 CAA’s manoeuvre components, 67th Motor Rifle Division and 164th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, are reported to be fighting on the front in a sector west of Severodonetsk and Kreminna, along the border between Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” it added.
Russia created CAAs to oversee, coordinate, and manage command and control of units transported to the border long before its full-fledged invasion of Ukraine but has bolstered its force posture since.
Ukraine has ramped up attacks against Russian positions in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in recent weeks, as troops slowly push forward to regain territory occupied by Moscow’s forces.
“Since the start of the invasion, Russia has only rarely maintained an uncommitted army-size grouping which could potentially form the basis of a major new offensive thrust,” the ministry said in its update.
“With 25 CAA apparently being deployed piecemeal to reinforce the over-stretched line,” a concerted Russian offensive appeared less likely, it concluded.
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