More Republicans joining the 2024 presidential primary are a boon to former President Donald Trump‘s chances to win the GOP nomination.
Former Vice President Mike Pence filed papers to launch his 2024 presidential campaign on Monday, making him the latest high-profile Republican to jump into the growing presidential field. He joins several other Republican candidates challenging Trump including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott. Meanwhile, other Republicans including former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum are expected to announce campaigns in the coming days.
This is good news for the former president. The Republican Party has grappled with its future in recent months, with many conservatives believing the GOP should shift away from Trump’s style of politics, which cost the party in moderate, suburban areas that have backed Democrats in recent years. But as more candidates divide support among voters vying for new leadership in the GOP, Trump may have an easier time snagging the presidential nomination.
Trump continues to lead polls of the primary, according to polls. A Quinnipiac survey conducted from May 18 to 22 among 669 Republicans showed Trump winning support from 56 percent of voters. Twenty-five percent said they planned to back DeSantis, while every other candidate polled in the single digits.
Still, 15 percent of Republican primary voters said they planned to vote for neither Trump nor DeSantis. Meanwhile, a CNN poll conducted from May 17 to 20 among 476 Republicans found that 20 percent of Republicans planned to back a non-Trump or DeSantis candidate—making these voters a fairly small, yet potentially impactful, part of the GOP electorate.
Political analyst Craig Agranoff told Newsweek that there are several ways a crowded field benefits Trump. More candidates running divides their attention and resources, which he said will make it more difficult for a single candidate to gain momentum. A divided field may also allow Trump to solidify his base, as his voters view him as the frontrunner, and can lead to a “fragmented message from the non-Trump candidates, making it easier for Trump to differentiate himself and appeal to a specific voter base.”
He said anti-Trump candidates are running because they believe their unique message will resonate with Republican voters.
“While there is a risk of vote splitting among these candidates, they may still see value in presenting alternative visions for the party and offering diverse policy perspectives. Additionally, some candidates may be running to establish themselves as potential contenders for future elections or to raise their political profiles,” he said.
Grant Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that a crowded primary field benefited Trump in 2016 when the higher number of candidates allowed Trump to win the primary with only about 45 percent of the vote.
Other Republicans at the time likely doubted Trump would be able to sustain momentum, so they declined to drop out until late in the primary season. However, one difference in 2024 is that it remains to be known whether non-Trump candidates would drop out, he said.
“The big question this time around is going to be, ‘Is there going to be some coordination among these other candidates and their campaigns that they’re not going to do this, this time,’” he said.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Trump critic who on Monday announced he would not run for president, warned about a divided field during an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash.
“I don’t mind who gets into the field, but given where the polls are right now, every candidate needs to understand the responsibility of getting out and getting out quickly if it’s not working,” he said, adding that candidates polling in the low-single digits should drop out by “Christmas in the latest.”
Agranoff said these some of these candidates will likely drop out before voting begins to try to coalesce around a non-Trump candidate, but the effectiveness of this will depend on factors such as the ability to rally behind a single alternative.
On the other hand, Reeher said the growing number of candidates running to challenge Trump could indicate softened support for the former president amid his ongoing legal issues, polarizing policy issues in his 2024 campaign and his actions surrounding the 2020 election results.
“I think that Trump’s behavior from between the election and the inauguration in 2020, I think there has caused reconsideration on part of some Republicans,” he said.
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