Ukraine can “easily” win back territory from Russia through its anticipated counteroffensive, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin recently predicted.
Prigozhin’s Wagner Group has fought alongside Russian troops in the Ukraine “special military operation,” launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin last February. Putin aimed for a quick victory against Ukraine, whose military was viewed as weaker and smaller than that of Moscow when the war began. However, the war-torn nation’s spirited defense effort, bolstered by Western support, has blunted Russian military gains, allowing the Eastern European country to reclaim thousands of square miles of occupied territory. As fighting continues, Ukraine is expected to launch a new counteroffensive in the coming months in hopes of taking back more of its land from Russian control.
Putin has turned to the Wagner Group in hopes of turning the tide of the war in his favor. The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organization largely comprised of former convicts that has fought in favor of Russian interests in various conflicts across the globe. Notably in the Ukraine war, they have fought with Russian forces in the battle to control Bakhmut, a city in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
The Wagner Group’s rise in prominence has also raised the profile of Prigozhin, a businessman and former Putin confidante who has become increasingly critical of Moscow’s military leadership. He has been named as a potential successor to Putin, and his alleged ambitions have caused a rift in his relationship with the current Russian leader.
During a recent discussion about the war with blogger Konstantin Dolgov, Prigozhin offered a grim outlook for the Russian military. Video of Prigozhin’s remarks was translated and posted to Twitter by journalist Julia Davis, who frequently monitors Russian state television.
Prigozhin outlined both “pessimistic” and “optimistic” scenarios for Russia’s future in the war, noting that he believes the more positive outcome for Russia remains “unlikely.”
The more likely scenario, Prigozhin warned, would see Ukraine restore its pre-2014 borders. This would entail Ukraine retaking control of Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 that carried important geopolitical significance due to its position along the Black Sea. Whichever side controls Crimea gains access to critical sea ports.
“They will be restoring the pre-2014 borders, and this can easily happen,” Prigozhin said. “They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge, cut off the delivery routes. Most likely, this scenario won’t be good for us. Therefore, we have to get ready for a difficult war.”
Meanwhile in Russia: Yevgeny Prigozhin took a crack at predicting the future and described the steps he believes Russia has to implement in order to survive the fight that it started. https://t.co/yuoZktc8XI
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 27, 2023
In addition, Prigozhin made several suggestions for how Russia can prepare to prevent losses in the ongoing war.
He said Moscow should institute martial law, declare “new waves” of troop mobilization, and transfer resources and funds solely on war efforts such as producing more ammunition.
The “optimistic” scenario Prigozhin laid out would require Ukraine’s Western allies, which have contributed billions of dollars of weaponry to Kyiv’s military, to become tired of the war, with Ukraine agreeing to the negotiating table. Even in this scenario, according to Prigozhin, the Kremlin would only get to keep territory currently in the hands of its soldiers.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment via email.
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