A dozen years ago, a first-term Democratic president went toe-to-toe with a newly installed GOP House majority over raising the debt ceiling — and mostly emerged with the political upper hand.
Don’t count on a repeat this time.
Unlike 2011, when Americans lamented their leaders’ handling of the debt limit but mostly sided with then-President Barack Obama in the bruising fight with House Republicans, public opinion this time is split heading into the critical weeks before the federal government is set to hit the cap.
Republicans, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, can point to polls showing only tepid backing for raising the debt ceiling and preference for spending cuts over tax increases to bring down the budget deficit. On President Joe Biden and the Democrats’ side: overwhelming support for lifting the cap once poll respondents are told breaching it could lead to a default.
That’s a mixed bag of public opinion: 54 percent of Americans opposed raising the debt ceiling in a new CBS News/YouGov poll this week, but that number dropped to only 30 percent when respondents were asked if they would let the U.S. default. But in Washington, polling uncertainty about the political fallout can have serious consequences. In the debt limit fight, it’s emboldening both sides.
Biden is in an especially precarious position, as he reportedly prepares to roll out his reelection campaign as soon as next week. He’s entering this fight with lower approval ratings than Obama’s ahead of the 2011 crisis, and voters remain worried about inflation and the economy — which, along with government dysfunction, could supplant more Democratic-friendly issues like abortion in the news in the coming weeks.
A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll from late February underscored the volatility of the situation — and the current disincentive for either party to cave: Asked whom they would blame if the U.S. defaulted, a plurality of voters, 37 percent, said they’d hold both parties equally responsible. Another 30 percent said Democrats would be most to blame, while 24 percent said the GOP would be.
It’s a different climate from 12 years ago. A Washington Post/Pew Research Center poll from mid-June of 2011 — about six weeks before the crisis was ultimately resolved — found more Americans said they would blame Republicans (42 percent) than Obama (33 percent) if the debt limit wasn’t raised.
In that debate, Obama and Democrats were generally seen as more in line with public opinion, backing a combination of spending reductions and tax increases on the wealthy — a generally popular plank — in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, compared with Republicans’ more drastic budget cuts.
That combination hasn’t been floated this year, given Republicans’ aversion to new taxes and Biden’s lack of engagement with McCarthy so far. Broadly, Americans are split when asked to choose between the two: tax hikes or spending cuts, with a slight preference to trimming spending.
A NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College poll in February found that half of voters, 50 percent, thought in order to close the national debt the government should “mostly cut programs and services,” while 47 percent said it should “mostly increase taxes and fees.”
In that poll, 52 percent of voters favored raising the debt ceiling “to deal with the federal budget deficit” — slightly different wording than the CBS News poll that yielded slightly stronger support. But only 26 percent of Republicans supported raising the debt ceiling, even as McCarthy seeks support for his plan in the House next week among a bloc of members who even opposed hiking it under then-President Donald Trump.
What could make 2023 different from 2011, Republicans say, is inflation.
“There is one really important change that’s occurred,” said David Winston, a Republican pollster and adviser to former House Speakers Newt Gingrich and John Boehner. “When you go back to prior discussions [about the debt ceiling], the national debt is still an abstraction.”
But now, Winston said, “There is a clear connection that the electorate has between spending and inflation.”
The GOP catered much of its 2022 midterm economic message around trying to connect government spending with the rapid increase in prices over the past few years.
There’s some evidence that’s worked, to a degree: A YouGov poll from last October, just weeks before the midterms, found that 53 percent of Americans assigned “a lot” of blame for inflation to “spending from the federal government” — though that was fewer than blamed “the price of foreign oil” (60 percent) and roughly equal to those who held “large corporations trying to maximize profits” (52 percent).
For Biden and Democrats searching for the upper hand, there are some encouraging signals in the polling. An ABC News/Washington Post poll from late January and early February asked Americans if Congress should only raise the debt ceiling if Biden agrees to spending cuts, or if “the issues of debt payment and federal spending” should “be handled separately?”
The public took Biden’s side on the strategic question: Only 26 percent said Congress should only raise the debt limit if Biden cut spending, while 65 percent said the debt payments and spending should be separate.
Moreover, while reducing spending might be broadly popular, there’s the issue of what to cut. In this week’s CBS News/YouGov poll, not only do seven-in-10 respondents want the country to avoid a default, but majorities actually support increasing spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid as part of the budget notifications. Even on defense spending, more Americans want to see it increased (41 percent) than decreased (26 percent). A third, 33 percent, want it to remain the same.
But Biden is also less popular than Obama — who was still enjoying a bounce in his poll numbers after the killing of Osama bin Laden entering the final three months of the 2011 debt crisis — at this point in the process. Biden’s average approval rating is 42 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight, while Obama in May 2011 was sitting on majority approval. And even Obama’s approval rating slipped as the country approached the debt ceiling that summer — a potential preview of what’s to come.
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