The J.L. Partners survey shared exclusively with The Post Thursday showed the 76-year-old leading his main prospective rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 47% to 39% among registered Republicans in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup — with 15% still undecided.
In a six-person GOP field that includes DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the 45th president receives 41% support, followed by DeSantis on 26%.
The pair are followed by Haley on 5% and Pence and Pompeo on 3% each, while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin each garner 1%.
One-fifth of those polled said they would either back another candidate or were undecided, with 14% saying the latter.
Notably, 70% of Trump supporters said their mind was made up about their choice, while 56% of DeSantis backers said they could be persuaded to change their mind.
Nearly half of Trump supporters (49%) say the Florida governor is their second choice for the nomination, while DeSantis fans are split between Haley and Trump (24% each) as their backup plan.
“In the first poll of Iowa caucus-goers since the indictment, Trump has a significant — but not insurmountable — advantage in the race,” J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told The Post.
“He is helped by a loyal voter base, with seven in ten of his supporters saying they have made up their mind,” Johnson said.
“DeSantis holds the firm position for second place, but his support remains fluid for now with more than half of voters saying they could change their choice.”
DeSantis has yet to formally launch his campaign, but is expected to do so sometime next month, after the Florida legislative session.
The poll also reveals a split among potential Iowa caucus-goers on the question of who should be the 2024 GOP vice-presidential candidate, with Haley and failed Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake tied at 17% each, followed by former HUD Secretary Ben Carson (11%) and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina (10%).
Far-right Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) also cracks the poll as the preferred VP candidate of 4% of respondents.
Lake is the favored running mate of Trump supporters, with 32% backing her for the No. 2 slot compared to 10% who want Haley.
Among DeSantis supporters, 34% want Haley to be the GOP running mate, followed by 15% who want Scott and 14% who want Carson.
“Below the Trump-DeSantis battle there are interesting moves. Kari Lake is Iowa Republicans’ preference for the VP nomination and the overwhelming choice of Trump’s voters — while Haley has an edge with DeSantis supporters,” Johnson said.
The poll also shows the ground could shift further, as 41% of Iowa Republicans said they could be persuaded to vote differently.
But 51% said their mind was made up and only 7% were unsure of their presidential pick.
J.L. Partners surveyed 628 Iowa registered Republicans between March 25 and April 4, the day Trump was arraigned in Manhattan criminal court for allegedly falsifying business records to conceal “hush money” payments to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
The poll had a margin of error of 3.9%.
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