Ukraine’s deputy prime minister has said that 2023 could be the year that the Russian Federation truly feels the weight of intense combat in Ukraine and punishing international sanctions.
Speaking during a European Policy Centre webinar on Wednesday, Olha Stefanishyna—Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for Euro-Atlantic integration—told attendees that Moscow is “exhausting” its capabilities, but that more foreign weapons were needed to help Kyiv “disable” its enemy.
“We see clear signs of Russian commitment and intention to repeat massed attacks and massed military engagement on the territory of Ukraine,” Stefanishyna, echoing recent warnings from Ukrainian leaders that Moscow is planning fresh offensives this year in a bid to seize back momentum.
“Recent aggressive activity has been reinforced by the Russian Federation in the eastern and the southern directions of Zaporizhzhia, and [the] Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” the deputy prime minister said, partially a reference to recent Russian gains around the eastern towns of Soledar and Bakhmut, which have seen brutal fighting for several months.
“Some counteroffensive operations have been, unfortunately, launched by the Russian Federation and we see the intensification of military efforts. In that regard, we also see a rather complicated situation with Belarus, which serves as a territory for launching nearly all the missile attacks.”
“We understand that Russia is running out of its military reserves,” Stefanishyna said. “This year would be the year when all the measures which have been taken over 2022—in terms of the sanctions restrictions, financial restrictions, reparations, and military sanctions, in particular—would have their effect on the Russian Federation.”
The West’s unprecedented sanctions against Russia are taking a toll, though over the past decade the Kremlin has garnered expertise in finding loopholes and dodging certain measures.
Russia’s monthly budget deficit hit a record $56 billion in December 2022, according to Bloomberg, bringing the country’s annual shortfall to some $48 billion.
The European Union-G7 oil price cap is eating into Moscow’s lucrative fossil fuels earnings, costing the Kremlin around $172 million every day, according to a report published this week by Finland’s independent Centre for Research on Energy and Clean.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in December that the oil price cap—which Putin has called “stupid”—might push Russia’s budget deficit beyond the 2 percent projected for 2023.
Meanwhile, the Yale School of Management said more than 1,000 major corporations had fled Russia since February 24, wary of Western sanctions and fearing reputational damage from staying in the market.
The sanctions and departure of Western firms means that key technological imports—including important components used in Russia’s most advanced weapons—have been increasingly hard to come by, with Russia’s domestic producers unable to fully replicate them.
At the front, Russia’s partial mobilization has gathered some 300,000 recruits for service in Ukraine. Ukrainian leaders have predicted that Moscow will soon order another round of mobilization as it looks to reinforce its mauled units, which since February have suffered more than 100,000 casualties by Kyiv’s count.
The high rate of attrition for Russian equipment is also posing a challenge for Moscow. Russia is reportedly taking older tanks and armored vehicles out of storage, while seeking donated vehicles and ammunition from other nations including Belarus, North Korea and Iran.
“‘Exhausting’ is something that we can apply as a major term when it comes to the assessment of the potential of the Russian Federation,” Stefanishyna said on Wednesday.
“But still, they have a very strong commitment to continue with their aggressive military engagement. And we understand that we should not hesitate in taking this opportunity to defeat Russia on the battlefield in this final countdown.”
“First and foremost, we need military assistance to disable the Russian Federation from further destruction of our country and genocide of Ukrainian people,” she said.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry to request comment.
The picture is grim for Ukraine, too, though its leaders remain bullish on their chances of ejecting all Russian troops from the occupied territories.
Kyiv is largely dependent on financial support from the EU, U.S., and international institutions to overcome its projected $38 billion budget deficit for the coming year. Its energy grid has been ravaged by Russian strikes, and the national economy shrank by more than 30 percent in 2022.
Ukraine’s casualties are mounting too, though Kyiv does not publish these figures. It has admitted 13,000 deaths between February 24 and the beginning of December.
U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have both suggested a total of around 100,000 casualties on the Ukrainian side, though this may be a cumulative figure of killed and wounded for both military and civilians.
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