According to a survey of 818 registered voters conducted by Patriot Polling, Warnock leads the Donald Trump-endorsed Walker by 1.7 percentage points (48.7 to 47 percent), with 4.3 percent still undecided ahead of the December 6 run-off election.
The survey results from Patriot Polling, which is run by two high school students, show that women, independent voters, those with college degrees and those who earn less than $50,000 all favor Warnock over Walker.
The Patriot Polling survey is the fifth Georgia run-off election poll in a row that Walker has now lost to Warnock.
An Emerson College polling conducted between November 28 and November 30 showed Warnock leading Walker by 51 percent to 49 percent.
The results also showed that regardless of who they support, 57 percent of voters in Georgia expect Warnock to win the run-off election, as he did in January 2021, while 43 percent expect Walker to win.
“Despite the ballot test being well within the poll’s margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About one in five Republicans expect their nominee to lose,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win.”
Elsewhere, a late November SurveyUSA poll showed Warnock with a 3-point lead (50-47) over Walker, with the Democrat also beating the Republican in an SSRS poll of likely voters (52-48) and registered voters (51-44).
Walker has only beaten Warnock in one of the seven most recent surveys—a Phillips Academy Poll published on November 28 which showed him with a narrow one-point lead—with a Fredericks Poll conducted between November 23 and November 26 showing the race was split 50-50.
The second Georgia Senate election was triggered after neither candidate managed to cross the 50 percent threshold needed in the midterms.
Warnock led Walker in the original vote by 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent, with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver, who will not be on the ballot in the run-off, receiving 2.1 percent of the vote.
If Walker defeats Warnock, the Senate will remain tied at 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting any tie-breaking votes.
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