President Joe Biden has dramatically raised the stakes of the midterm elections, declaring, as part of the campaign’s close, that democracy itself is on the ballot.
Come January, he may find himself needing to govern with those he’s cast as democracy’s threats.
Tuesday’s midterm elections will likely dramatically shape Biden’s next two years in office. Republican victories would almost certainly ensnarl the president’s agenda, trigger a slew of investigations and impact Biden’s 2024 reelection decision.
But Biden himself has made the case that the stakes on Tuesday are not just about his party’s ability to maintain power and further his agenda. He has argued that U.S. governance itself is at risk.
“You can’t call yourself a democracy or supporting democratic principles if you say, ‘The only election that is fair is the one I win,’” Biden said at a weekend campaign stop in California. “An overwhelming majority of Americans believe that our democracy is under threat.”
It will be a tall order for Democrats to maintain control; and it’s very possible that the election deniers that Biden is warning about will soon take over critical government posts, raising even more complicated questions about the path his presidency will chart.
“If Democrats don’t do well, the party has to take a really hard look at our messaging. These losses would be a huge setback,” said James Carville, a veteran Democratic strategist who worked on Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign. “It’s going to be a disaster for democracy. It’s going to be a disaster for Social Security and Medicare. It’s going to be a disaster for everything.”
With few exceptions, a president’s party over the last century has taken losses in his initial midterms and Biden came to office with remarkably slim margins: just a few votes in the House and a deadlocked 50-50 Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris often breaking the tie.
The 2022 race has had several phases. Early in the year, with inflation soaring and Biden’s approval rating sinking, Republicans looked poised to win in a wipeout. But over the summer, Democrats notched several impressive legislative victories and felt a surge of energy after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and cast aside federal abortion protections.
Democrats still believe that the wave of new voters who registered after the high court’s decision could tip the race their way. But in the race’s closing weeks, concerns about the economy and crime grew more prominent, restoring a political environment that seems favorable to Republicans. Democrats have had to play defense on usually friendly turf, including districts in deep blue states such as California, New York and Oregon. At this point, most Democrats privately concede the House is lost but both parties believe the Senate is a true toss-up.
If the Republicans capture the House, Washington would change in a flash.
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