A top Ukrainian military official cast doubt on a future attack from Belarus this winter, saying the country is unlikely to get involved in the war unless its Russian allies can demonstrate the manpower strength necessary to launch a renewed offensive push on Ukrainian soil.
In comments on national television Tuesday, Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesperson Yevhen Silkin said the probability of an attack from Belarus will depend largely on whether Russia can provide at least 50,000 troops as reinforcements to the attack through its ongoing mobilization efforts—a goal Silkin said the country is unlikely to meet until sometime in spring.
However, he said the threat of attack could increase “significantly” early next year based on Russia’s ability to meet its enlistment goals.
“We can be sure (that the Russian Federation will launch a new offensive from the north) when there are enough enemy troops on the territory of Belarus,” Silkin said, according to a translation of his comments by the Kyiv Post. “Namely, when they strengthen the grouping of troops to about 50,000 to 70,000. Then we will be able to say that the Russians are ready for a new offensive.”
The comments come weeks after Ukrainian officials first reported intelligence of increasing military activity on the Belarusian border along the northwestern edge of the country. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko previously allowed Putin’s armies to use his country as a launching pad for the Russian invasion and has spoken of a possible joint force between the two countries.
Though Ukrainian General Oleksii Gromov told reporters October 20 the government did not consider the buildup to be purely “demonstrative actions,” military officials were quick to claim that an invasion from the north, while a threat to be taken seriously, was not imminent.
However, the renewed comments from Kiev come at the same time British intelligence officials claimed Moscow was trying to portray Belarus as “increasingly complicit” in the Russian war effort. On Tuesday, British intelligence officials claimed evidence of a pair of Russian fighter jets “parked” at a Belarusian airfield alongside what it believed to be a nuclear-capable, AS-24 “Killjoy” missile at a Belarusian airfield in what they described as a “message to the West.”
However, the move likely has little practical strategic significance. Experts have noted the missile’s 1,200 mile range lends Russia little added advantage in terms of striking additional targets within Ukraine,” the British Ministry of Defense said in a policy brief.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also said Monday Putin is “extraordinarily unlikely to seek direct military conflict with NATO,” and remains more likely to use the threat of nuclear war and potential attacks on NATO allies as parts of his effort to dissuade the West from additional support for Ukraine.
Moscow, meanwhile, expressed earlier this week there may be conditions in which the Kremlin would be willing to renew dialogues around a peace deal—but only with significant concessions to Russian demands.
Newsweek has contacted the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for comment.
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