Former President Donald Trump still appears to be favored to win the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination and ultimately the general election despite the revelations of the January 6 investigation hearings of the past few weeks, new polling shows.
The House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, pro-Trump attack against the U.S. Capitol held its first publicly televised hearing on June 9. Since then, the investigators have held five more hearings, with legal experts calling some of the evidence and testimony presented a “smoking gun” of the former president’s alleged criminal culpability.
Regardless, new polling released by Emerson College on Friday showed that more registered voters say they would back Trump in 2024 compared to Biden. Furthermore, Trump leads the GOP primary field, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is regularly touted as a top alternative, trailing by well over 30 points.
The new survey data showed just 39 percent of voters would back Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch against Trump. Meanwhile, the former Republican president had the support of 44 percent. An additional 12 percent said they’d back an alternative candidate and 5 percent remained undecided.
When it comes to the GOP primary for 2024, Trump had the backing of 55 percent of Republican voters. DeSantis came in distant second with just 20 percent, and former Vice President Mike Pence trailed in the single digits at 9 percent. None of the other potential Republican contenders had more than 5 percent support.
The poll included 1,271 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Notably, Trump’s support in a hypothetical rematch against Biden held steady since Emerson’s similar poll in May. In the previous survey, the Democratic president had the support of 42 percent compared to Trump’s 44 percent. The previous poll did not ask respondents about the GOP primary.
The current Real Clear Politics average of national polls, which includes survey data from April 19 through June 29, showed Trump leading Biden in a 2024 matchup by about 1.8 points. The former president has the support of about 45.2 percent compared to 43.4 percent for the current commander-in-chief.
Biden, 79, and the White House have confirmed multiple times that he plans to seek reelection in 2024. However, due to the president’s age and poor approval rating, some prominent Democrats have publicly and privately speculated that he could step aside for another candidate. Some have even floated the idea that a Democratic candidate could mount a challenge to the incumbent president.
Meanwhile, Trump has not officially confirmed plans to run for the presidency again in 2024. He has, however, consistently hinted at the possibility. Most analysts assume that he plans to run, although some suggest he could step aside and select a successor instead.
In an interview broadcast by Newsmax on Thursday morning, Trump was asked about DeSantis and the possibility of the two prominent Republicans runing together on one 2024 ticket.
“Well, I get along with him. I was very responsible for his success because I endorsed him and he went up like a rocket ship,” the former president said.
Trump went on to tout his current success in the polls. “I’m leading in all the polls. Against Republicans and Democrats. I’m leading in the Republican polls with numbers nobody has ever seen before and against Biden and anyone else they want to run, I’m leading against them,” he said.
Most polls, with some exceptions, do show Trump leading both the 2024 Republican primary field as well as a hypothetical general election matchup against Biden.
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