Could it be that all 12.7 million people suddenly just aren’t working?
If so, how do they eat and pay their rent or mortgages? And why aren’t they showing up in the unemployment rate, which has been trending downward? At 4.6 percent, it’s the lowest since the start of the pandemic.
Through it all, I’ve had a theory. Allow me to quote myself from last month:
If you ask the Department of Labor, they’ll tell you that [people are quitting] with nothing else lined up. But honestly, that makes zero sense …
And it makes me wonder: What percentage of people quit jobs (especially lower-wage jobs), because they figure they might as well try turning side-hustles into a full-time income?
I don’t have data, but very often the simplest explanation for big changes is the obvious one.
Guess what? Now we have data, and it seems to show exactly what I (and many other people, I’m sure) thought might be going on: A lot of people are quitting their jobs to go into business for themselves.
Check out these statistics reported in the Wall Street Journal, citing the U.S. government and other sources:
- First, new Labor Department data shows that there are now 500,000 more unincorporated, self-employed workers than there were at the start of the pandemic: 9.44 million.
- Next, the number of new applications for federal tax ID numbers jumped 56 percent between 2019 and 2021; two-thirds of those were for businesses expected to employ nobody other than the founder.
- The percentage of workers in the U.S. who consider themselves self-employed rose from 5.4 percent in February 2020, just before the pandemic, to 5.9 percent now.
- In September 2019, the online marketplace Etsy had 2.6 million active sellers; as of the same time this year, the number was 7.5 million.
- And, there are similar signs from online career sites and marketplaces like LinkedIn and Upwork.
Overall, I think this is a positive development. (Although it probably doesn’t matter how anyone feels about it; this trend is happening.)
Whether they were driven by fear of Covid, or the realization that they didn’t want to give up flexibility, or lack of child care, or if they simply took stock and realized they’d rather take a bit more control of their own destinies, this wave of newly self-employed workers could explain a lot.
Will it be a permanent shift? Time of course will tell.
But, if you’re a business leader, even if it means it’s now marginally harder for you to hire great people, or even if it means that one of your employees has left to become a competitor, I think you should take some pride in this trend.
Because the way we identify the world’s greatest leaders isn’t just to see how many followers they have, or even whether they wind up leading their teams to achieve whatever their next objective might be.
Instead, one of the best measures of a leader is whether he or she inspires others to follow their own dreams, and even become leaders in their own right.
It’s messy, and it can be painful, and sometimes it’s hard to track. But right now it seems like a lot of people are doing exactly that.
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