Online sports betting site Bovada has President Trump with the best odds of winning the election at +125. Former Vice President Joe Biden has the second-best odds at +550, followed by South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at +625, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at +800 and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at +900.
But these numbers don’t tell the whole story. Betting site BetOnline shows the Democrats have odds of -130 to win the election, which is better than the Republicans’ odds of +110. This means that while Trump is currently favored to win the Republican nomination and the election, he will be the underdog once the Democrats have a nominee.
Trump is hoping to bet on a strong economy to win the election amid an impeachment process. He has made numerous efforts to discredit the process, calling it a “hoax” or a “sham.”
There is a strong chance that Trump is not removed from office. According to BetOnline’s odds on Tuesday, Trump is favored to stay in office at -800, compared to +425 that the Senate convicts him. However, his odds of remaining in office have gotten worse. On Dec. 5, BetOnline had -1,000 odds of Trump staying in office, compared to +550 that he is removed.
Trump currently appears to be benefiting from a saturated Democratic field. Fourteen Democrats have dropped out but the current field is at 15 ahead of February’s Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.
But once the Democrats rally around a presidential candidate, Trump may face an uphill battle. Trump’s disapproval ratings have consistently been above 50% since March 2017.
Incumbency may work in Trump’s favor. The last three presidents were re-elected. Since World War II, only presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were not re-elected.
Working against Trump is that he faces opposition in his own party, as former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former Rep. Joe Walsh are running as Republican candidates. Recent electoral history shows that incumbents who faced a primary challenge lost in the general election.